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Written by Web Master
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Monday, 27 November 2006 |
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Hello and Welcome to my site. My name is Bonnie (stormspotter). I have been a storm spotter for Emergency Management for approximately 13 years. This has been an exciting and rewarding experience. Being a spotter, we are able to pass vital information on in regards to wind speeds, hail size, formation and rotation as well as other aspects we can see from our ground position. This in conjunction with radar helps the authorities to warn the public of the storm and its potential. I am the owner of Global Hits. Org Traffic Exchange with "family friendly" sites only. Opens to new page This is a beautiful website designed by Judy, owner of SBG Web Designs. Please take the time to enjoy all the links and watch/listen to the videos.open here |  |
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Last Updated ( Saturday, 06 December 2008 )
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StartXchange Traffic Enchange |
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Written by Bonnie Davis
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Tuesday, 10 July 2007 |
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Startxchange has been around for many years, has excellent support service and friendly members. Click here to open |
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 10 July 2007 )
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Written by Bonnie Davis
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Tuesday, 05 December 2006 |
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Progressive Ratio increases as you surf. Next day special ratio for frequent surfers. Top 3 surfers earn FREE credits DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY. NEW MEMBERS RECEIVE 200 STARTUP CREDITS AFTER THEY SURF 20 SITES |
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Last Updated ( Friday, 08 February 2008 )
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Newsflash
** High fire danger Saturday, very warm **
** Colder Air Sunday **
A weak trough moved through the area Thursday. Winds have gone light behind the trough and will gradually pick up out of the southeast then south tomorrow. Temperatures will be similar to today, with upper 50s north to mid 60s far west. High clouds will continue to stream southeast over most of the area.
Winds gradually increase overnight going into Saturday, then shift to the southwest. Before winds shift southwest, it appears stratus or even drizzle may form in the eastern 1/2 of the state. BUFKIT shows a dry airmass above 900 mb in OKC and guidance shows zero pops so I am discounting anything other than in far eastern OK. Typically the models do not handle southwest winds here very well. The new NAM model does a reasonably good job. I pumped Saturday up to 74 degrees but after looking at NAM MOS in western OK I think I may have overdone it a little. Fire danger will be high regardless, with winds of 22-30 common.
A fairly strong cold front arrives in northwest OK Sunday afternoon, and passes through OKC late in the day. It appears all we'll get out of it is some clouds as the main storm system passes north.
We are continuing to watch a fairly strong dip in the jet and upper storm that will traverse across Texas on Monday. The new NAM and GFS models from 0Z both show a ridge in place over Oklahoma just before the system is scheduled to arrive. GFS indicates a weak vorticity center traveling from west Texas to south of Wichita Falls on Monday and across the Red River, however it appears that the surface high will prevent this from being a major feature. The bulk of the energy appears to be on the tail end of the system in northern Mexico and far south Texas. When I made this forecast originally, I was buying into the DGEX solution which mirrored the old GFS in a lot of ways, with snow across southwest and south-central OK, all the way up to OKC. Since I only had vague information from the ECMWF 500 charts, the forecast was far from clear-cut. After seeing the new NAM and how far away the vorticity center is at 12Z Monday, I am tossing out the previous thinking and dropping snow from the forecast except for perhaps far southeast OK.
ECMWF and 12z GFS diverged on Tuesday the 6th. I am going with the ECMWF solution. A comparison of the two models can be found at the San Juan State website here:
http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/ecmwf.html
I based Tuesday's temps off of snow on the ground with a north wind which will now not happen. 18Z GFS seems to be doing better than 12Z so I have been using it some as well. There will need to be major modification to the latter extended.
There are indications of a trough moving off the rockies on Thursday which should drop temps a few degrees.
This is some of the worst data I have seen from the models in quite some time. Even the GFS and NAM, although they may mirror each other, will not agree with what they predicted 24 hours ago. They've done terrible on low temperatures too I might add. This just adds fuel to the fire with my discontent of the NGM model being removed in February. At least we know it's biases and it's helped quite a bit lately. Where is the arctic air GFS said was coming? I have done so many adjustments to the numbers beyond day 6 that it's all becoming a blend of climatology. Perhaps I need to sit and look at the ensembles more to see if they have a clue. I am reverting back to Jon's AM numbers for the purposes of this discussion beyond day 3.
OKC 29/60 45/74 30/39 28/38 27/44 30/48
Greg/Fox 25 Weather
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